目录（点击切换）
注意>>>【免费下载本报告完整版PDF，扫上面二维码,各大行业报告均有】
<“UROFRAME
European Forecasting Research Association
for the Macro-Economy
TBERLIN
National
Institute of
| | | | Economic and
吕 | | | 人和 Social Research
了 二5肆必CIAZIGNEEconomic Assessment of the Euro Area:
Winter 2020/202 1
This EUROFRAME Report presents an asSeSS-
Iment of the economic outlook for 2021 focuses
on the euro areabased on a Synopsis of the fore-
casts of EUROFRAME institutes. Perspectives
for UK and CEEs countries are described in
Boxes A and B, respectively.
In the Focus section, we discuss a special topic，
based on work done in the EUROFRAME insti-
tutes. This time,， we discuss the impact that the
COVID-19 crisis had on labour markets in Eu-
rope and policy responses to this _ challenge，
based on the experience in the countries hosting
EUROFRAME institutes.
The international outlook: the second wave of Covid-19 slows down
the recovery
。 When the first wave of the pandemic hit
countries atthe beginning of2020, governments
closed all non-essential businesses and issued
stay-at-home orders， The resulting economic
losses Were huge in terms of output, jobs and
incomes. Global trade of goods fell dramati-
cally. Services have been hit particularly hard，
especially activities that rely on social interac-
tion Such as tourism, hotels, restaurants and en-
tertainment，
As summer approached, the number of Covid-
19 infections gradually decreased and most re-
strictions Were lifted，Consumer expectations
improved and activity had a“V shape”rebound，
1 Airtraffic and international tourism remain on the dovwnside. mn
November 2020, the number of passengers on international
fghts was 88 Per cent lower than a year earlier.
3
with some countries experiencing a steeper than
expected recovery. However，only China re-
gained its pre-crisis level of GDP. According to
the CPB world trade monitor, global trade grew
MoM since June and surpassed its pre-crisis
level in November. According to recent datathe
current containment measures until now Seermm
to have had little impact on the world trade in
goods. However, the Covid-19 pandemic con-
tinues to weigh heavily on international trade in
ServViceS.!
The epidemiological Situation started to worsen
again in autumn 2020, forcing governments to
implement a new round of lockdowns， Alt-
hough most of these shutdowns are less strin-
gent than those enforced in Spring (Chart ])，these containment measures Will reverse the
sumtImer\'s fecovery in many countries and are
likely to negatively affect growth prospects for
2021.
Monetary and fiscal policy remain crucial to
Support activity and incomes, Monetary eas-
ing by Several central banks contributed to pre-
Serving ”favourable financing conditions
throughout the pandemic period and will con-
tinue to do so going forward. The Fed atthe end
of August 2020 announced a shift in their
Chart 1 -_ Stringency index
100 = strictest level of policies
100
90
80 |
70
60
50 :-
40 ee Oermany
30 和站CC
Spain
20
ee etherlands
10 ee Sweden
0 -一 T T T Taly
Q SS S SN QQ S wy wy
7 人 KR 站了
立 SS < 六 < 9 人 SS
Source: Hale et al. (2020).
Note: Data updated to January 2021.
strategic objective toward a 2 per cent target on
an average Undetermined period and to Short-
falls in full employment (rather than deviations
from full employment), which would imply in-
flation to temporarily exceed 2 per cent in the
coming years and could further delay the next
interest rate hike. The ECB at the beginning of
the crisis introduced additional policy tools
(PELTROSs, PEPP and more favourable condi-
tions for TLTROS), which in December 2020 站
reinforced and extended beyond 2021 and
pledged to adjust according to the evolution of
the health crisis.
China is leading the global recovery. The Chi-
nese economy recovered well from the first
wave ofthe pandemic. The continued growth of
industrial production and an economic structure
which is more manufacturing orientated con-
tributed to this result (Chart 2). Moreover, 让
did not experience a Second wave of infections
So far，unlike other major economies. Asian
economies are benefitting the most from
China\'\"s growth and the Pre-Covid trend to-
wards trade regionalization in Asia is moving
forward. The approval of the Regional Compre-
hensive “Economic “了Partnership increases
China\"s influence in the region, especially after
the US withdrew from the Trans-Pacific Part-
nership in 2017. This moves the global centre of
trade more toward Asia.
Chart 2 -Industrial production
December 2019 = 100
110
105
100
95
90
85
80
75
70
Dec-19 “Mar20 “Jun-20 Sep-20 Dec-20
Source: Prometeias calculations on National Statisti-
cal Offices data.
Note: Data updated to December 2020.
The start of a new era for US domestic and
foreign policy. The worsening ofthe health cri-
Sis in the last part of 2020 wil slow the recovery
after the rebound ofQ3-2020. While GDP in the
fourth quarter continued to grow (by 1 per cent
QoqQ)，economic activity clearly lost momen-
tum. In December, the US labour market lost
jobs for the first time after eight months，with
leisure and hospitality the most Seriously af-
fected. mm January 2021, despite a monthly gain
of 49 thousand jobs, total employment was still
around 9 million units lower than before the
关于起重设备行业报告相关推荐:
门禁系统行业报告,如何看行业报告,idc行业报告复印机
评论已关闭！