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Tanslation by Margus Elings, Refner Translations OD
Editing by Scott Abel, Tekstikoda OU
Design: Taivo Org
lustrations: Joosep Maripuu, Taivo Org, Bigstock, Shutterstock, Scanpix
ISSN 2613-3261 (print)
ISSN 2613-327X (online)Foreword
Russias foreign policy
From crisis to crisis:
50 years of Russian policy in its \"Near Abroad
The standoff between the Belarusian government
and its people
Lukashenka\'s departure is a prerequisite for
economic reforms
Russia in search of a new head of state for Belarus
Russia continues its aggression against Ukraine
Violent upheaval in the Caucasus
Russia in Africa: ambitions and reality
Russias domestic politics and economy
2020 constitutional amendments
Increasing domestic tensions and the Kremlin\'s response
Russia\'s socio-economic downturn
The Russian Armed Forces
“New type\' of airborne assault units
The “Belarus military district” - military cooperation
between Russia and Belarus
Russian special services
GRU psychological operations
Russian special services\"” influence operations in cyberspace
Growing pressure from China
Chinese influence operations move to the West
9Sinicising Chinese technology
China and Russia - a practical partnership
10
12
14
16
20
24
50
引
3
40
全
50
523
59
60
65
69
735
76
782
FOREWORD
FOREWORD
his is the Estonian Foreign
Intelligence Service\'s sixth
annual report. The reason why
we continue with this tradition remains
the same - to offer the public both
in Estonia and abroad an expert view
of the security environment and the
threats our service deals with. Consid-
ering Estonia\'s geopolitical situation,
the range of topics should not come as
a Surprise.
The year 2020 was a good lesson for
anyone making predictions. Like every-
one else, when fnalising last year\'S
report in January, we failed to predict
how strong an impact the pandemnic
would have on global developments.
Although we have lived in a changed
world for the last 12 months in many
ways, the security environment around
us has largely remained the same.
National interests and patterns of be-
haviour do not change overnight. Still，
the coronavirus crisis offered new op-
portunities for authoritarian regimes to
exert influence and accelerated already
existing trends. We could say that in a
time of universal mask-wearing, some
masks also fel| off.
In this report, we take a closer look
at Moscow\'s view of international
trends. Despite the Kremlin\'s carefully
cultivated image of derzhava (a great
powenm, both at home and abroad, the
past year once again showed us the
fragility and controversy of Russia\'s
influence in its neighbouring region. 上
is clear that the dictatorship in Bela-
rus, nurtured by its eastern neighbour
has no long-term perspective, and we
must be prepared for another year of
unexpected developments. The events
in the South Caucasus have signif-
cantly increased Russia\'s influence in
the region, but have also cast doubt
on Russia\'s ability - and motivation
=- to guarantee stability. A disparity
between image building and actual
influence is also visible in Russia\'s
activities in Africa.
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