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EYES ON THE PRIZE: AUSTRALIA, CHINA, AND THE ANTARCTIC TREATY SYSTEM

The Lowy Institute is an independent policy think tank.lts mandate ranges
across all the dimensions of international policy debate in Australia 一
economic,political and strategic 一and it is not limited to a particular
geographic region. Its two core tasks are to:

e。 produce distinctive research and fresh policy options for Australia\'s
international policy and to contribute to the wider international debate

e。 promote discussion of Australias role in the world by providing an
accessible and high-quality forum for discussion of Australian
international relations through debates, seminars, lectures, dialogues
and conferences,

Lowy Institute Policy Briefs are designed to address a particulan current

policy issue and to suggest solutions,. They are deliberately prescriptive,
specifically addressing two questions: What is the problem? What should
be done?

The views expressed in this paper are entirely the authors own and not
those of the Lowy Institute,.

LOWY INSTITUTEEYES ON THE PRIZE: AUSTRALIA, CHINA, AND THE ANTARCTIC TREATY SYSTEM

KEY FINDINGS

e。 Australia\'s interests in Antarctica are better served by the Antarctic
Treaty System (ATS) than anything we could negotiate today. We
should redouble our commitment to its ideals of science-driven,
rules-based management 一 and counter the narrative of ATS
failure\'

。 China is pushing the boundaries of ATS practice by exploiting
fisheries and tourism,and probably seeking access to Western
technologies in Antarctica. And in the future,Beijing could lead a
coalition of states seeking mineral riches that only China is likely to
be capable of retrieving.

e。 Australia should watch China\'s _ activities closely,but react
cautiously. We should be wary of false analogies with the Arctic and
not overreact to marginal military developments. We should shield
the ATS from Australia-China tension and US-China competition.

LOWY INSTITUTEEYES ON THE PRIZE: AUSTRALIA, CHINA, AND THE ANTARCTIC TREATY SYSTEM

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

What is the problem?

The Antarctic Treaty System (ATS) provides Australia with a peaceful,
non-militarised south; a freeze on challenges to our territorial claim; a
ban on mining and an ecosystem-based management of fisheries. But
China wants to benefit economically and potentially militarily from
Antarctica. Itis increasingly assertive in theATS, primarily overfisheries
access, and active on the ice.

What should be done?

Australia should front load its support for the ATS, increasing both the
substance and profile of our Antarctic activities. We should emphasise
ATs ideals ratherthan our claim to Australian Antarctic Territory (AAT ).
We should work hard internationally to dispelthe myth that Antarctica\'s
resource Wealth will be unlocked in 2048 on review of the Madrid
Protocol. Inside the ATS, we should play to our strengths in multilateral
diplomacy. Canberra should monitor Chinese activities in Antarctica
and the ATS and step up its maritime awareness of the Southern Ocean,
but refrain from geostrategic panic.

2 LOWY INSTITUTE

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