中国政策对全球半导体创新的影响(英)-ITIF-2021.2-61页.pdf_【行业报告下载】

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INTRODUCTION

Semiconductors represent perhaps the world\'s most-important industry, as they are the
foundation of a wide array of products and services.1 Moreover, they play a key enabling role in
emerging technologies Such as artificial intelligence (Al), high-performance computing (HPC),
5G, the Internet of Things, and autonomous systems, among others.

Unlike industries in which China has already gained Significant global market share一including
high-speed rail, solar panels, and telecom equipment一China\'s global market share and
competitiveness in Semiconductors, especially with regard to Chinese-headquartered firms,is
still quite modest, with the global leaders largely based in Europe, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan,
and the United States.

lt is because of this that China has targeted the industry for global competitive advantage,, as
detailed in a number of government plans, including“Made in China 2025.”China has taken a
wide range of steps to propel itself into becoming a maljor global semiconductor competitor.
However, while some of these policy actions are fair and legitimate, most are not and are
“innovation mercantilist”in nature, Seeking to Unfairly benefit Chinse firms at the expense of
more-innovative foreign firms.

Competition can drive innovation, but only if it is market-based. When Apple came out with the
iPhone and helped drive Blackberry from the market, this spurred innovation,because it Was
based on consumer demand for a better product, with innovation driving the change. In contrast,
Chinese semiconductor firms lag Significantly behind the global leaders,uSually by two
generations of chip development, and Chinese firms patent less than the global leaders. As Such,
Chinese chip sales largely depend on unfair Support from the Chinese government; and each Sale
reduces the pace of global semiconductor innovation by taking market share and revenue away
from more-innovative non-Chinese firms. In fact, this report estimates that without Chinese
innovation mercantilist policies in the semiconductor industry, there would be more than 5,000
additional U.S. patents in the industry annually than there are now.

This report provides an overview of the semiconductor industry and the innovation dynamics
driving it, including an explication of why innovation mercantilist policies harm innovation. 绪
then describes Chinese innovation mercantilism in the sector and examines the deleterious effect
of China\'s policies on global innovation in the sector. Finally, it provides policy recommendations
for how policymakers can address these challenges.

A BRIEF OVERVIEW OF THE GLOBAL SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY

The term“semiconductor” refers to a solid substance一such as Silicon or geranium一which has
electrical conductivity properties allowing it to be used either as a conductor or an insulator.
Semiconductors, also referred to as integrated circuits (1Cs),,constitute the brains powering
electronic equipment,, providing the computational and storage capacity underpinning digital
computing. Semiconductors pack as many as 30 billion transistors onto a chip as Small as the
Size of a Square centimeter, with circuits measured at the nanoscale (nm,a unit of length

INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY & INNOVATION FOUNDATION | FEBRUARY 2021 PAGE 1equal to one-millionth of a meter) level, with the very-newest semiconductor fabrication facilities
producing semiconductors at 5nm and 3 nm scales.2 Leading-edge semiconductors contain
transistors that are 10,000 times thinner than a human hair, operating at tolerances Smaller
even than the Size of the coronavirus. In 2019, the global semiconductor industry generated
$412 billion in revenues and shipped over 1l trillion semiconductors.3 Analysts expect the
industry to grow to $730 billion by 2026.4

In 2019, U.S.-headquartered semiconductor enterprises held a 47 percent market share of
global semiconductor industry sales (down about 5 percent from the 51.8 percent Share they
held in 2012), followed by South Korean firms with 19 percent, Japanese and European firms
with 10 percent each, Taiwanese firms with 6 percent, and Chinese enterprises with 5 percent.
(See figure 1.)

However, production Shares are different, as many U.S. Semiconductors are produced in places
Such as Taiwan and China. In fact, as of 2019, the United States possessed just 11 percent of
global semiconductor fabrication capacity, whereas South Korea held 28 percent,Taiwan 22
percent, Japan 16 percent, China 12 percent, and Europe 3 percent. (See figure 2.) China\'s
share of global semiconductor fabrication capacity doubled from 2015 to 2019. As of year-end
2020, there were just 20 semiconductor fabrication facilities (fabs”) operating in the

United States.5

Figure 1: 2019 Global semiconductor industry sales market share by nationally headquartered companys

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Talwan, 69%6

Europe,109%6
United States,

47956
Japan,109%6

INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY & INNOVATION FOUNDATION | FEBRUARY 2021 PAGE 2309%6

2596
2096
159%6
109%

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South Korea Taiwan Japan China United States Europe Other
国2015 目2019

Discrete 2374 59% 259% 42956 59%
Memory 239%6 659%6 9% 03%
Analog 63% 09% 9% 22%
Logic 61936 676 65% 99%6 99% 99%6
096 2036 409%6 609%6 809%6 1009%6

United States South Korea Japan Europe Talwan China “ 量Other Asia-Pacific

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