Look Again 【再看一眼】全文阅读pdf(Look Again 万维钢mobi)

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moneyinBitcoin，askbeautifulCatharineonadate，skydive,，getonarollercoaster,Oftakecocaine.Youw训feelyourheartraceandyourfeetshake.Yourbraininterptretsthosesignalstomeanthattheactisquiterisky.Suchfeelingscanserveasaninternalbrake,andperhapsyouwillrefrainfromjumping.Ifyoufeelnothing,therew训benobrakestoStopyoufromgoingahead.Youmightaswellinvestmuchmore,askCatharinetomarryyoorjumpo企acli在.Bynowyouarefamiliarwithemotionalhabituation:计somethingtriggersanemotionalreactionwithinyou，itw记dosolessandjlesseverytimeyouencounterit.9o,thefearyoufeelbeforetakingatisk一suchasbyjumpingo企thebridge一isreducedeachtimeyoudoit.Thisistrueas]ongasthesePastriskyactsdidnotleadtodisaster(thatis,youlandedsafelyinthebluewaterratherthanbreakingyourskul).Ifyouendupwithcrackedbones，youw记dishabituateimmediately.Sosupposethatyoutakeafisk:crossingastreetonasnowynightjumpingo企abridge，textinganddriving，havingunprotectedsex，exceedingthespeedlimitinvestinginhigh-riskstocks，orburyingyourselfalive.Ifnothingbadhappens,yourbrainw训starttoestimatetheriskaslowerthanitdidinitially.Afterall,everythingturnedoutftne.Asaresultbyouaremorelikelytoengageinthesamebehavioragainandagainandfeelperfectlycomfortabletakingonjargerandlargerfisks.Now,thisisnotnecessar

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ilyirrational.ItisnotcrazytoestimateyouUrriskbyreferencetoyoUIpastexperiences.YouareUpdatingyourbeliefs.Butyoudon\'thavemuchdataonwhichtorely.Youarerelyingonasmallnumberofpersonalexperiencesthathappenedtogowelloftenleadingtooverconfidence.Let\'sthinkbacktoJoeBurrus.JoedidnotwakeuponemorninganddecidetoburyhimselfaliveinaPlasticcasketundertonsofcement.OnthecontraryhehadseveralyearsofexperienceescapingarangeofboxesinarangeofSituations.9ohefeltquitecomfortablegettinginsideacasket，Hefeltsocomfortablethatthenextlogicalstepseemedtobedoingsounderground.Onceheescapedfromafewfeetunder，theideaofdoingitagain，thistimewithcementontop,appearedreasonabletohim.Joetookmoreandmorerislsandeachtimehisperceptionoftheriskwasfurtherdivorcedfromthetruth.Historyiscrowdedwithfgureswhotookgreaterandgreaterrisks,untilthelargestoneexplodedintheirface.JIakeformerBritishprimeministerDavidCameron.InthewordsofhistorianAnthonySeldon，“DavidCameronwillberememberedasagiantrisk-taker,，takingBritaintowarinLibyain2011,andfailingtodosoinSyriain2013,callingtheScottishindependencereferendumin2014andtheEUreferendumin2016.…ItisStillthatdecisiontocalltheEUreferendumthatloomslargesbasoneofthegreatestgamblesinpojliticalPhistory.站Cameronbelievedthat

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thereferendumwasasafebet.SurelytheBritishPeoplewouldvoteforBritaintoremainintheEuropeanUnionandthusweakenthepowerofhisopponents.Well，thatdidnothappen.Cameron\'sgambleendedhispojliticalcareerattheageoffiftyandchangedthecourseofBritishhistory.PeopletakelargerandlargerTisksformanyreasonsbeyondhabituation.Escapeartistsmightgetjlargerandjargereconomicrewardsfortheirfeats.Politiciansmightneedtotakelargerandlargerriskstostayino全ce.Itislikelyhowever,thathabituationplaysamajorrole.OLDHATLNEWHATFormostofusunderestimatingpoliticalrisksorthedangerofliveburialisnotanissue.YetabitofDavidCameronandJoeBurrusisinallofus.ConsiderCOVID-19.Whenthelockdownwasfirstinitiated，Taliandhercolleaguesaskedalargegroupofpeoplewhethertheythoughttheywouldgetinfectedandhowdangeroustheythoughttheviruswas.2Peoplethoughtthattheriskwashigh;theywereafraidandcautious.Ialithenaskedthemagainonjlyafewweekslater(longbeforevaccineswereintroduced).Peoplehadbecomemoreandmorerelaxed，believingthattheriskwasnotasgreatastheyhadPreviouslythought.Whiletheriskdidnotchangemuchinthefirstfewweeks，Peoplegainedexperienceinlivingwiththethreatandtheygotaccustomedtohearingaboutcases.Whiletenumberofdeathsmounted,Peopleexperiencedthevirusfirsthandasmostlymild.

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