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本文节选自《Look Again 万维钢》电子版:
moneyinBitcoin,askbeautifulCatharineonadate,skydive,,getonarollercoaster,Oftakecocaine.Youw训feelyourheartraceandyourfeetshake.Yourbraininterptretsthosesignalstomeanthattheactisquiterisky.Suchfeelingscanserveasaninternalbrake,andperhapsyouwillrefrainfromjumping.Ifyoufeelnothing,therew训benobrakestoStopyoufromgoingahead.Youmightaswellinvestmuchmore,askCatharinetomarryyoorjumpo企acli在.Bynowyouarefamiliarwithemotionalhabituation:计somethingtriggersanemotionalreactionwithinyou,itw记dosolessandjlesseverytimeyouencounterit.9o,thefearyoufeelbeforetakingatisk一suchasbyjumpingo企thebridge一isreducedeachtimeyoudoit.Thisistrueas]ongasthesePastriskyactsdidnotleadtodisaster(thatis,youlandedsafelyinthebluewaterratherthanbreakingyourskul).Ifyouendupwithcrackedbones,youw记dishabituateimmediately.Sosupposethatyoutakeafisk:crossingastreetonasnowynightjumpingo企abridge,textinganddriving,havingunprotectedsex,exceedingthespeedlimitinvestinginhigh-riskstocks,orburyingyourselfalive.Ifnothingbadhappens,yourbrainw训starttoestimatetheriskaslowerthanitdidinitially.Afterall,everythingturnedoutftne.Asaresultbyouaremorelikelytoengageinthesamebehavioragainandagainandfeelperfectlycomfortabletakingonjargerandlargerfisks.Now,thisisnotnecessar
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ilyirrational.ItisnotcrazytoestimateyouUrriskbyreferencetoyoUIpastexperiences.YouareUpdatingyourbeliefs.Butyoudon\'thavemuchdataonwhichtorely.Youarerelyingonasmallnumberofpersonalexperiencesthathappenedtogowelloftenleadingtooverconfidence.Let\'sthinkbacktoJoeBurrus.JoedidnotwakeuponemorninganddecidetoburyhimselfaliveinaPlasticcasketundertonsofcement.OnthecontraryhehadseveralyearsofexperienceescapingarangeofboxesinarangeofSituations.9ohefeltquitecomfortablegettinginsideacasket,Hefeltsocomfortablethatthenextlogicalstepseemedtobedoingsounderground.Onceheescapedfromafewfeetunder,theideaofdoingitagain,thistimewithcementontop,appearedreasonabletohim.Joetookmoreandmorerislsandeachtimehisperceptionoftheriskwasfurtherdivorcedfromthetruth.Historyiscrowdedwithfgureswhotookgreaterandgreaterrisks,untilthelargestoneexplodedintheirface.JIakeformerBritishprimeministerDavidCameron.InthewordsofhistorianAnthonySeldon,“DavidCameronwillberememberedasagiantrisk-taker,,takingBritaintowarinLibyain2011,andfailingtodosoinSyriain2013,callingtheScottishindependencereferendumin2014andtheEUreferendumin2016.…ItisStillthatdecisiontocalltheEUreferendumthatloomslargesbasoneofthegreatestgamblesinpojliticalPhistory.站Cameronbelievedthat
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thereferendumwasasafebet.SurelytheBritishPeoplewouldvoteforBritaintoremainintheEuropeanUnionandthusweakenthepowerofhisopponents.Well,thatdidnothappen.Cameron\'sgambleendedhispojliticalcareerattheageoffiftyandchangedthecourseofBritishhistory.PeopletakelargerandlargerTisksformanyreasonsbeyondhabituation.Escapeartistsmightgetjlargerandjargereconomicrewardsfortheirfeats.Politiciansmightneedtotakelargerandlargerriskstostayino全ce.Itislikelyhowever,thathabituationplaysamajorrole.OLDHATLNEWHATFormostofusunderestimatingpoliticalrisksorthedangerofliveburialisnotanissue.YetabitofDavidCameronandJoeBurrusisinallofus.ConsiderCOVID-19.Whenthelockdownwasfirstinitiated,Taliandhercolleaguesaskedalargegroupofpeoplewhethertheythoughttheywouldgetinfectedandhowdangeroustheythoughttheviruswas.2Peoplethoughtthattheriskwashigh;theywereafraidandcautious.Ialithenaskedthemagainonjlyafewweekslater(longbeforevaccineswereintroduced).Peoplehadbecomemoreandmorerelaxed,believingthattheriskwasnotasgreatastheyhadPreviouslythought.Whiletheriskdidnotchangemuchinthefirstfewweeks,Peoplegainedexperienceinlivingwiththethreatandtheygotaccustomedtohearingaboutcases.Whiletenumberofdeathsmounted,Peopleexperiencedthevirusfirsthandasmostlymild.
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